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Metro Traffic Makes Way for 200G Transport
Steve Koppman | Contributing Analyst
By 2017, metro traffic is expected to increase dramatically.

16QAM modulation that provides 200G over 100G lines will be a significant market presence with potential substantial adoption.
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200G Transport: A Market Reality Check
As the worldwide communications market migrates to ever higher capacity levels, networks are growing significantly faster at the metro level, driven by demand from data centers and their providers of Internet content and the cloud along with ever-intensifying requirements to bring data closer to end users, particularly for exploding and demanding applications, such as streaming video to mobile devices.

Market estimates project extreme growth of metro traffic. Forecasts by Bell Labs, a division of Alcatel-Lucent, project growth of real-time video traffic from the cloud to mobile smart devices by eight times between 2012 and 2017 and of data center connectivity traffic by more than five times over the same period. For another indicator, Heavy Reading forecasts the metro 100G equipment market will grow at a 72 percent compound rate through 2018. Carriers consequently face pressure to improve their optical network performance in light of these intensifying bandwidth demands and cost crunches threatening their profitability.

At least a few dozen customers have deployed 200G-capable products worldwide (though not necessarily the actual speed – since the dominant product is a 100/200 flexible line card usable for either speed). Customers are almost exclusively carriers so far – a fact that will soon be changing – primarily smaller to mid-size entities, the good majority so far outside the U.S. Most potential customers are still widely seen as "kicking the tires" in this arena.

16QAM modulation providing 200G over 100G lines – the primary means by which 200G is implemented – will be a growing and significant, though not ubiquitous, market presence for metro and regional routes over the next couple of years. There is likely to be substantial though not overwhelming adoption in the near term, with faster growth among Web 2.0/data centers than carriers as the latter hedge their bets. While the large majority of 200G adoption has been by carriers so far, the market is more optimistic about data center adoption.

The major drawback to 16 QAM is its limited distance reach, exacerbated by issues of protection and fiber rings, multiple modes of fiber and rights of way. While this limitation will likely be transcended over time, it will be binding until something better and broadly credible is introduced, quite possibly for at least the next couple of years.

There is wide disagreement as to whether 200G will become a major presence in the next couple of years in the carrier environment or stay relatively "nichey," limited to relatively small use cases, as on select links on which fiber is exhausted and carriers need to lease.

200G Transport: A Market Reality Check provides a market reality check on the status of 200G adoption. The report briefly provides an overview of this activity, then assesses market trends and circumstances. Finally, this report profiles six key market players.
Sample research data from the report is shown in the excerpts below:
Table of Contents (hri0715_toc.pdf)
The basic reason for implementing 16QAM 200G transport remains to improve economies of capacity creation from a provider perspective in a context of rapidly growing capacity demand. In addition to the primary saving on photonic lines, there are concomitant savings on electric power consumed and real estate used when 200G of bandwidth can be transported much the same way 100G was previously. While 200G will never be a service or service interface, it is an efficiency measure that can dramatically improve capacity economics for carriers and others managing bandwidth provision.
[click on the image above for the full excerpt]
Companies discussed in this report include: Companies profiled in this report include: Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU); Ciena Corp. (NYSE: CIEN); Cyan Inc. (NYSE: CYNI); Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.; Infinera Corp. (Nasdaq: INFN); and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ).
Total pages: 13
MAY 2015
The Telecom Industry Rates Its Standards & Trade Groups
This report presents and analyzes the results of the survey, including demographic data on survey participants, as well as results and commentary for several key survey questions. Further, the report includes FIIRP scores and comparative ratings for all 17 organizations included in the survey, as well as summary conclusions.
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Including table of contents, executive summary, and financial metrics
MAY 2015
Gigabit Cities Public-Private Initiatives: Four Case Studies
This report presents four case studies of public-private partnerships for U.S. Gigabit Cities. It discusses the concerns that led to partnership proposals, how these were addressed, and the projects' results at their various stages, derived from documentation and recent interviews with nine representatives of cities and operators of various kinds.
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Including table of contents, executive summary, and financial metrics
APRIL 2015
Connected Drones… Seriously
This report examines the emerging market for commercial, connected drones. It describes the emerging value chains and functional stratification of technologies that make up a connected drone, examines the most significant issues facing the sector, summarizes the development of drones as network nodes, and profiles 14 companies in the industry.
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Including table of contents, executive summary, and financial metrics
CONTRIBUTING ANALYST
Simon Sherrington
Simon is an independent consultant who contributes regularly to Heavy Reading Insider. He has 13 years of experience analyzing, reporting, and consulting on technology market trends.
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Simon Sherrington
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CONTRIBUTING ANALYST
Danny Dicks
Danny is an analyst and consultant with over 20 years' experience in technology markets who contributes regularly to Heavy Reading Insider.
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Danny Dicks
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ANALYST
Tim Kridel
Tim writes for both Mobile Networks Insider and Cable Industry Insider. He has previously covered the wireless and cable industries for a number of research firms, including Heavy Reading.
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Tim Kridel
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